Although 99.99% of analysts continue to focus on price analysis, our analysis differs by making use of the two axes offered by the graphs (x and y). The point is this: there is a wealth of information coming from the time axis, why let timely information from the time axis go to waste? Based on our price and time readings, we forecast that November 2023 will be a bullish month. This could set the stage for an early ATH test 2024.
While price analysis is very important and often leads to decision making, our thesis is that timing analysis is even more important for understanding the periods when "good things tend to happen" versus "they are more likely to happen." not so good things happen." We call the latter โvolatility windows,โ and while no one can be 100% accurate 100% of the time, we think our volatility window forecasts in 2023 have been unusually accurate.
A volatility window should not be confused with a crash, it is rather a window of time in which a high/medium/low intensity pullback could occur. In a way, with our forecasts we predict when this popular fear indicator will go to lower readings, long before that happens.
Very often when analyzing financial markets and investing, success comes from acting and thinking exactly the opposite of what is common belief and intuitive thinking. We explain it with many illustrations in Tsaklanos your investment principles 1/99.
This article includes the S&P 500 chart.
Price analysis would lead investors to follow the ascending channel, one that is clearly clear on the chart.
Using temporal analysis, we forecast that the S&P 500 would fall to 4250-4300 points in the second half of September. The purple box on the chart is what we predicted in August. We could only do this by applying a timeline analysis.
In that sense, we refer to the yellow lines on the S&P 500 graph: those are the volatility windows we predict, or (as last time in August) the yellow line visualizes the beginning of a volatility window.
The good news for investors is that a green vertical line is visible on our chart, expected in early November. This means that a bullish window of time is ahead.
Given these bullish time windows versus volatility windows, it is easy to use price analysis as confirmation (or invalidation) of our forecasts: the S&P 500 has to respect the ascending channel, if it does and the index does not violate 4330. points for the first week of November, will mean that the probability of a bullish November will have increased exponentially. In that scenario, we expect readings of around 4666 on the S&P 500 towards the end of the year. When combined with the 2 charts posted in the article How do you know if stocks will crash in 2024? we could see, at best, a test of ATH in the first quarter of 2024.
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