Yahoo Finance Jared Blikre joins Asking for a Trend to break down Tuesday's market trends.
Apple (AAPL) has reached a new all-time high, rising approximately 7% intraday. Blikre notes that the likelihood of this move being a false breakout is an unlikely high-risk scenario.
Stock volume in the overall market has plummeted recently. Although volume is currently below average, Blikre believes it will normalize over the summer.
Finally, bitcoin (BTC-USD) and ethereum (ETH-USD) are having their worst day in five weeks, which is also expected to normalize in the coming months.
For more expert insights and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Asking for a Trend.
This post was written by Melanie Riehl.
Video transcript
And the S and P 500 NASDAQ close at a new high as Apple hits a record here with more takeaways from the trading day.
Let's go directly to Yahoo.
Jared Blicker of Finance.
Jared.
Thanks, josh.
Guess what?
I'll call this a comeback because Apple hasn't gone anywhere for years.
You can see that today is up 7%, the best day in several years.
This is what it looks like today.
I'll show you the last two years and you'll see what I mean by this leak.
We just weren't going anywhere for quite a while here and this is only recently, we can see in the last five years, which includes the whole pandemic.
In fact, there has been a lot of side action here.
So we hit new nominal highs, but now we're finally revealing what's interesting about this.
And by the way, let me show you our takeout board, very well prepared for us.
This is Apple reaching a new all-time high, but I did a study and took a signal day like today.
So if you have Apple gaining 3% and hitting a new high.
I estimated this has happened 15 times in the last 20 years and we only allow one sign per quarter.
The important thing is what happens next.
So a day later, 4/10 percent more, only four out of 10 times is positive.
But you start looking at a week, a quarter of a month, a year later, until you get to 88%.
These are really good statistics even for a stock that is going up primarily because there are long periods of time where it has this breakout and eventually goes up.
What is the risk here for this?
Because we are seeing average gains of around 30% over the next year.
This is V. We'll see that in a second here.
But what I want to show you is that Apple chart one more time.
So we're looking at five years here.
The risk is that this is a false breakout and that we go down again in the next few days and then go down some more.
But that's the lowest case scenario, that's the Iris scenario, but it's a low probability.
That's not what I think will happen.
And so for the market, Jared, the biggest takeaways are when you know that a name like Apple starts doing this way again.
Yeah.
For a long time we've been talking about this NVIDIA story, which is the story of AI.
Apple has been left out and you can see it in the year to date totals.
Even Apple is basically in balance to start the day all year round.
NVIDIA rose 144%.
NVIDIA has been getting all the action.
NVIDIA may be a little tired here.
So it would be fitting if another big stock could carry the AI โโbanner for a while.
Apple has always been a leader in the overall stock market over the past 10 years.
So it's probably comfortable for a lot of people to see him lead again.
Uh, I take this as a big positive for the market.
Okay, Jared Blu, point number two.
Yes, we are facing complacency in the market.
So let me move forward here.
We got Apple to an all-time high, but stock volume recently plummeted.
Let me give you some statistics.
So I look at the spy volume, the spy is the S and P 500 spider ETF which is kind of a proxy for the overall market.
I've recently seen the lowest volume of spying in years, and sometimes what happens in the summer is okay.
Come June, you will see the volume decrease a bit, but this is extreme.
I don't mean extreme, but I mean more than average.
So we are seeing less volume than average.
What this reminds me of is that a few summers ago in 2022, when we had that big bear market?
Everyone was a little scared.
Uh, we saw stocks for a while.
They managed to get up.
And then there was a kind of feeling in the market that everything is fine.
But I think you know that old saying, "cover in May or excuse me, sell in May and be gone," should be changed to cover in May and be gone.
And I think that's just what we're seeing here.
Finally, I found my graph.
Here's 2022, here's the summer rally I was watching.
And I think market participants are just not as active this summer.
I think they put their positions in their coverages and pulled away for a little 3rd, 3rd 1, Jerry.
We'll get to this very quickly.
This has to do with Bitcoin, Bitcoin and Ether just having their worst day in five weeks.
So I'll go to the lists real quick.
I showed the Bitcoin dashboard, the Ether dashboard at the close today and you can see it once I upload it here, just give me two seconds and I'm done.
Uhh. You can see a lot of dark red on the screen.
Here is Bitcoin.
What I have been pointing out so far this year is that we are in a trading range.
So this might be the worst day we've had in a few weeks, maybe in about a month.
But until we break out of this range up and down, this doesn't mean much.
And you take a look at Ether.
It's a pretty similar graph.
There you go.
Just a slightly higher trading rate very quickly.
Does this tell me anything about the risk appetite going into the federal level? You know, it's a good question.
Um, Bitcoin has been correlated in recent years.
You know, with the risk, the risk appetite going into the meeting.
I don't know, because if you look at copper, it was kind of a risk appetite that hit a new high.
It then fell to a new low.
You take it, you put it together, the commodities market with the cryptocurrency market, maybe risk is a little tired right now and you, you kind of put that, uh, with my previous thesis at the point where the market could be. autopilot until the end of summer and this influences it.
So I don't expect a big shakeout tomorrow at the Fed meeting, but maybe things are a little more risky than, uh, bubbly.
Alright, we'll wait and see, Jared.
Thank you my friend.
Thank.
