This is an excerpt from our full Bitcoin 2024 Outlook report, one of nine detailed reports on what to expect next year.
Bitcoin 2023 in review
As bad as 2022 was for Bitcoin, 2023 was just as good. โHistory doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme,โ as they say, and seasoned cryptocurrency followers no doubt recognize some similarities to past cycles.
From the ashes of the FTX, UST and Celsius implosions in 2022, Bitcoin rose like a phoenix from its lows near $16,000 to nearly triple to $45,000 in 2023, driven by hopes of a more accommodative macroeconomic environment, a clearer regulation and an imminent spot ETF in the US exposing the asset class to trillions of dollars in investable assets.
Bitcoin Outlook 2024
With the crypto โwinterโ of 2022 clearly behind us, Bitcoin has entered the most bullish period of its 4-year halving cycle. For the uninitiated, the amount of new Bitcoin paid to miners is halved roughly every four years, slowing the inflation rate of Bitcoin's supply and increasing its "stock-to-flow" ratio, a measure of the "hardness" of a coin. .โ
As the following chart, which I've colloquially called "The Only Bitcoin Chart You'll Ever Need," shows, the cryptocurrency has historically rotated through three stages with remarkable consistency every 4 years:
1. โCrypto Winterโ (bull market peak to bear market low)
โข Dec 2013 โ January 2015 (58 weeks): -86%
โข Dec 2017 โ Dec 2018 (52 weeks): -84%
โข November 2021 โ November 2022 (54 weeks): -78%
2. โCrypto Springโ (from bear market crash to Bitcoin halving):
โข January 2015 โ July 2016 (78 weeks): +377% low to high
โข December 2018 to May 2020 (74 weeks): +348% low to high
โข November 2022 โ April 2024 (72 weeks): +191% low to high (so far)
3. โCrypto Summerโ/Mania Stage (Bitcoin Halves to Peak Bull Market):
โข July 2016 โ December 2017 (74 weeks): +2.873%
โข May 2020 โ November 2021 (78 weeks): +615%
โข April 2024 - ???: to be determined
Source: TradingView, StoneX
If this historical pattern holds, it could indicate further growth potential in the first quarter of the year before the Halvings in April, and then an acceleration from there if Bitcoin enters another stage of mania as we have seen after the Halvings. previous. Of course, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, and even if we are in the early stages of another bull cycle, it's worth noting that there will likely be bumps in the road. As the chart below shows, previous Bitcoin bull markets have seen declines of 40-60% before peaking. Since bottoming out late last year, this cycle has seen only a mere...
20% recoil:
Source: Glassnode
Check out the complete Bitcoin guide below, where we look at some potential catalysts that could boost Bitcoin in 2024 and beyond:
