Bitcoin (BTC) held onto $ 50,000 until December 25 when BTC bulls avoided a nasty surprise on Christmas Day.
"Bears turn to bulls" in the short term?
Data of Cointelegraph Markets Pro Y TradingView showed that BTC / USD held a support at $ 50,000 over the weekend, after local highs above $ 51,500.
The pair was calm as the holiday season began, with less liquidity yet to manifest itself in the form of volatile price movements.
With most taking a break from trading and analyzing, the closest target to the upside remained the $ 1 trillion market cap valuation level at $ 53,000.
For popular trader Pentoshi, a sticking point could arise in the way sellers actively reduce BTC / USD to $ 46,000 liquidity, only to later buy back for a bounce.
"Right now you are on the offensive. They lower the price to 46k but there was a lot of liquidity at rest there = prevent the price from moving. They start to close short positions and buy something again," he said. Offered as a forecast.
"Bears become short-term bulls like me."
Beyond that, the annual close was not yet a major topic of interest, and Bitcoin was nonetheless up $ 21,000 compared to the beginning of 2021.
The $ 100,000 halving cycle average is not dead yet
Meanwhile, the creator of the stock-to-flow model, PlanB, was taking stock at the end of the year.
Having drawn fresh criticism over comments from Twitter that it says were misinterpreted, the popular analyst said that Bitcoin still delivered on its model's predictions this month.
As Cointelegraph reported, the stock-to-flow parameters provide significant headroom when it comes to spot pricing, which is valuable to PlanB and others, however.
Ad2: intact S2F model
The key is that BTC $ 51K is still within 1 standard deviation band of the S2F model (roughly $ 50K- $ 200K, see chart). If BTC stays within the 1sd band for the next 2.5 years, then the S2F model is still valid and indeed useful to me. Of course, you should make your own call. pic.twitter.com/cFpRdewUJ5- PlanB (@ $ 100 trillion) December 24, 2021
While $ 135,000 this month, a recently invalidated floor model forecast, turned out to be Too optimistic, that figure as the average price of this halving cycle remains in play.