Update from January 23rd below. This post was originally published on January 22.
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The price of bitcoin fell again to $40,000 per bitcoin despite BlackRock's decision.
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Now, As the market prepares for an Elon Musk bombBitcoin and cryptocurrency traders are nervously watching outflows from Grayscale's bitcoin fund (GBTC), newly converted into a full-fledged spot bitcoin ETF, with JPMorgan warning that $1.5 billion could still be withdrawn from the fund in the next few weeks. next weeks.
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The price of bitcoin has swung wildly since the approval of a number of bitcoin spot ETFs, and has plummeted ... [+]
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“Bitcoin looks tremendously heavy,” said Arthur Hayes, founder of crypto derivatives pioneer Bitmex, who is now chief investment officer of a fund called Maelstrom. aware to X. "I think we're over $40,000 [per bitcoin]Hayes predicted, adding that he believes the price of bitcoin will continue to fall until January 31, when there is a quarterly funding announcement from the US Treasury.
Update January 23: The price of bitcoin has plummeted below $40,000 per bitcoin, driving down the price of other major cryptocurrencies, ethereum, XRP and solana, with the crypto market's combined losses since the approval of a fleet of spot bitcoin ETFs just two weeks ago. at 300 billion dollars.
"The next crucial price levels for bitcoin that could provide support are estimated to be between $38,000, which is close to the short-term holder's realized price for bitcoin at $38,307 and $36,000," according to a report by analysts at Bitfinex.
The price of bitcoin has now lost 20% since the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) gave the green light to 11 closely watched bitcoin spot ETFs on January 10, a milestone in which some supporters of cryptocurrencies had been in the works for a decade.
"Bitcoin's technical outlook has turned bearish now that the Bitcoin spot price closed below the lower boundary of the 'ichimoku cloud', a key technical support," said Yuya Hasegawa, bitcoin and cryptocurrency market analyst at Tokyo-based Bitbank said in emailed comments.
"The bearish market sentiment and technical outlook could put more pressure on bitcoin in the coming days unless the price recovers quickly and closes above $40,000. If that fails, the price could continue to fall, and the next place will probably be $38,000."
The price of bitcoin, along with the price of ethereum, XRP and solana, has come under pressure in part due to fears that capital outflows from Grayscale's flagship GBTC could accelerate.
"If the previous estimate of $3 billion turns out to be correct and given that $1.5 billion has already left, then there could still be an additional $1.5 billion to come out of the bitcoin space through profit taking in GBTC, which will exert "more pressure on bitcoin prices in the coming weeks," JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note. seen by The block.
The value of Grayscale's GBTC has skyrocketed alongside growing expectations that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would grant it full spot bitcoin ETF status in recent months.
Those who have bought GBTC in recent years are now “realizing all of their post-ETF conversion gains by exiting the bitcoin space entirely rather than switching to cheaper spot bitcoin ETFs,” the JPMorgan analysts said.
“Liquidity and market depth also matter, but again there is a risk for GBTC on that front as well if other bitcoin spot ETFs manage to reach critical mass in terms of size and liquidity,” the analysts wrote, finding that GBTC could see an additional $5 billion in $10 billion of outflows if it loses its liquidity advantage.
A fee war has broken out between spot issuers of bitcoin ETFs, with companies like BlackRock and Fidelity offering rock-bottom fees for those who want to buy shares, driving demand for alternatives to Grayscale's GBTC.
“At the time of the conversion, GBTC held approximately 620,000 bitcoins, which has now been reduced to approximately 552,000 bitcoins,” Matteo Greco, a research analyst at investment company Fineqia International, said in emailed comments.
"The strong capital outflow can be mainly attributed to two factors: first, GBTC customers could not redeem shares, and due to the product structure, before conversion they could only sell them on the secondary market. This forced many clients to hold their positions for years. With no exit option unless they were willing to sell at a significant discount on the secondary market. Secondly, the highest management fee set by Grayscale (1.5%) compared with most competitors (0.2%/0.3%) led some investors to withdraw their investment. from Grayscale, either to cash out profits or reinvest in more profitable ETFs."
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The price of bitcoin has swung wildly in recent months as hype for spot bitcoin ETFs boosts bitcoin. ... [+]
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However, despite the wild swings affecting the price of bitcoin and the weight on the price of other major cryptocurrencies, ethereum, XRP and solana, many working in the crypto space remain optimistic.
"While the short-term impact [of the spot bitcoin ETF approval] “It is unclear and may cause volatility in the medium term, my personal opinion is that the increased access of retail investors and the alignment of institutions to adopt and promote a new asset class is certainly positive,” Jason Lau, Chief Innovation Officer by OKX. exchange, he said in emailed comments.
"I believe that the widespread acceptance of bitcoin will ultimately drive more users to interact with bitcoin itself and benefit from the power of a decentralized, permissionless network."
