The latest news for Bitcoin and the crypto market speak of a return to volatility after a period under the banner of low trading volumes on centralized exchanges.
In such a delicate context, aggravated by the complexity of the macro data in the United States, cryptocurrency holders continue undaunted to accumulate satoshi in anticipation of the next bull run.
Let's take a look at all the details together.
Latest Bitcoin news: liquidity at record lows, but volatility of the crypto asset returns
News of black rockBitcoin's formal request to the SEC to create a spot Bitcoin ETF has led to crypto asset volatility resurfacing after months of low trade activity.
Cryptocurrency trading venues in recent weeks have seen one of the lowest levels of trading volume and market liquidity from the confinement of 2021.
The last rally that pushed Bitcoin above $30,000 allowed for a positive swing in the price volatility indexwhich, however, is still at very low levels.
In detail, the standard deviation of the monthly recorded average price for Bitcoin has risen from 1.6% at the end of May to 2.57% today.
To give an idea, in June 2021, in the midst of the rise in prices of the entire crypto sector, that figure crossed the 6% threshold.
A market with current conditions reflecting low liquidity and volatility in a slight rally, in a general price movement that has seen laterality after the last pump, is synonymous with indifference on the part of financial actors.
It should be noted that low liquidity is synonymous with possible price manipulation by Whales, who, with relatively little capital, can move the market in the direction they prefer. It is crucial not to be fooled by false moves and sudden spikes during this sensitive period.
The options market also remains inexorably uninteresting: the volatility of derivative instruments in Bitcoin, prior to the Blackrock news, had hit one of the lowest levels in 3 years.
However, as of June 18, we witnessed that rate rise from 42% to 57% in a matter of days, then stagnate at current values โโof 47%.
These latent conditions in the crypto market are likely to continue in the coming months, suggesting that the worst may be behind us for now.
Holders Continue to Accumulate Bitcoin Even During Latest Volatility Index Rise
Even though Bitcoin recently hit multi-year lows in both trading volume and volatility indices, we can see that Headlines of the most capitalized cryptocurrencies in the world are constantly accumulating.
In fact, very little importance is given to the market situation by those who tend to make ACD in Bitcoin without thinking too much about it cryptocurrencyprice of
Demand resilience is supported by the approach of The long-awaited Bitcoin halving event, which will occur in about 300 days.
In general, the months leading up to the event that results in the halving of the rewards for minersdedicated to the production of blocks, statistically causes an increase in the prices of BTC, which becomes more expensive in view of the increasing scarcity in the digital realm.
Holders take advantage of unattractive markets in the eyes of traders to accumulate satoshi and continue their accumulation strategy undeterred.
While the miners balances, exchanges and whales dwindle, those hoarding the top crypto asset are adding an average of 42,200 BTC per monthoccupying a significant part of the circulating supply.
Looking at the โBitcoin Hodler Net Position Changeโ chart, we can guess based on past experience that this image could continue in this direction for another 6-12 monthswaiting for the rise in crypto market prices and the start of an inverted red phase.
It will be crucial to observe how the market reacts and how the different entities of the Bitcoin ecosystem behave in such a complex market situation, in which tensions appear between investors and regulators in the USA and uncertainty in the macro data as well.
Bitfinex analysts, in a weekly report analyzing in chain movements in the crypto sector, suggest paying attention to the evolution of the metrics that we have presented.
โAs the market continues to transform in response to its inherent dynamics and exogenous factors, including regulatory changes, the resilience and adaptability of the cryptocurrency market will continue to come under rigorous scrutiny.โ
A look at the macro data in the United States
Having analyzed Bitcoin's volatility indices and observed the behavior of cryptocurrency holders, let's now take a look at the macroeconomic situation in the united states.
Just yesterday, the asset manager of the banking institution HSBC warned investors that the US could fall into recession starting in the fourth quarter of 2023leading the country to a condition of economic decline for at least 1 year.
Many other indicators, such as the "Leading Economic Index" (LEI), which forecasts a nation's future economic activity, indicate that the US registered his 14th consecutive month of economic declinewith a fall of 0.7% during May.
In any case, the danger of recession is hampered by the presence of a solid labor market and recovery of the housing sector.
Home prices in the United States registered a significant increase not seen since 2016, giving signs of recovery for the economy.
According to data from the Department of Commerce, new home construction rate increased by 21.7% year after year to a peak of 1.63 million new homes for the country's population.
Requests for the start-up of new construction also grew by 5.2% in the last year, which corresponds to 1.49 million new units.
However, complicating the situation is the painful rise in interest rates on fixed-term mortgages for households, which have not seen interest rates this high since 2008.
As of September 2021, the โmortgage rateโ on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increases by 4.2% if we calculate the cap in November 2022.
The situation now appears to be under control, with the worst behind us, as 2023 has seen a stabilization of this figure.
It remains central to observe how the situation in the real estate how the industry will evolve, and whether households will be able to bear such high interest rates and continue to boost the economy by buying new homes, or whether they will prefer to save money by driving prices down in the markets.
Adding to the exciting macroeconomic The big picture is the Federal Reserve, which has announced that it will embark on a shift toward more expansionary monetary policies in early 2024.
In the coming months, investors expect two more increases in government bond interest rateswith 71.9% of them waiting for a 25 basis point increase at the next Fed meeting on July 26.
Powell is aware that inflation has remained too high during the last few years of monetary containment and it will not be easy to bring it back to the pre-established values โโof 2%.
During the last meeting of Fed officials, he emphasized the importance of price sustainability so that the market can benefit from future injections of liquidity without losing too much ground at this delicate stage.
In fact, the situation is complex: the United States is balanced between fears of an economic recession that will result in stagnant economic growth in the country, and the resumption of expansionary monetary policies supported by a resilient housing sector and labor market.
