Bitcoin threatens $38K as 3-day chart hints at March 2020 Covid crash repeat

bitcoin (BTC) further tested $38,000 overnight as the weekend began with uncertainty among traders.

BTC/USD 1-hour candlestick chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

The 3-day chart could be the "forerunner" of the week

Data of Markets Cointelegraph Pro and TradingView it showed BTC/USD hovering around $39,000 after several attempts to break the $38,000 support.

The couple had also seen a brief push above $40,000 on Friday thanks to geopolitical developments, however, this lasted a few minutes before the previous status quo returned.

Such โ€œfakesโ€ at higher levels, ending with Bitcoin coming full circle and liquidating short and long positions, was already familiar behavior for market participants this month.

Now, however, the lower time frames were starting to show signs that a more significant downtrend could be on the horizon.

โ€œBTC 3-day candles are flirting with the 200 MA for the first time since the Covid crashโ€, analysis resource Material Indicators warned Twitter followers on the day.

โ€œIf this is a precursor to what the weekly candle is going to do, make sure you have enough powder to take advantage of the buying opportunity that follows. That bounce can change your life.โ€

The 200-week moving average, currently just above $20,000 and rising, has acted as a historical bottom throughout Bitcoin's lifespan and has never been breached.

BTC/USD (Bitstamp) 1-week candlestick chart with 200MA. Source: TradingView

Reaching it would require a 50% drop from the current spot price and a 70% drop from all-time highs, something BTC/USD has, however, achieved in the past.

the covid accidentfor example, it saw a 60% drop in a matter of days before an equally strong reversal kicked off a new price paradigm later in the year.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, remained at the mercy of stock markets throughout the week, trending lower to cap weekly losses of 2.9% and 3.5% for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, respectively.

Earlier, the popular merchant Pentoshi had clearly stated that he believed that a Wall Street Crash-style event could take over the markets this year.

Big and small BTC bets keep coming

On the upside, whale buyouts and smaller investors' wallet growth provided reason to be cheerful for long-term hodlers.

Related: Bitcoin Derivatives Metrics Reflect Neutral Trader Sentiment, But Anything Can Happen

Like Cointelegraph reported30,000 BTC left Coinbase on Friday as exchange reserves mimicked declines seen in July and September of last year, immediately before Bitcoin made significant price gains.

โ€œ10-100 BTC wallets are piling up like crazy, their supply is going parabolic,โ€ Lex Moskovski, CEO of Moskovski Capital, aggregate on wallets, citing data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.

โ€œThese guys successfully sold the meat of the $10k-50k Bitcoin move.โ€

An accompanying chart showed that the proportion of BTC supply now held by entities (one or more wallets assumed to have the same owner) was now at its highest level in a year.

Proportion of Bitcoin supply held by entities with a balance of 10-100 BTC on the annotated chart. Source: Lex Moskovski/Twitter