BTC Bears Target Sub-$24,000 on US Crypto Market Uncertainty

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Key ideas:

On Thursday, BTC gained 1.85% to end the day at $25,611.
US economic indicators provided much-needed support, with US jobless claims and retail sales easing aggressive bets from the Fed.
However, technical indicators remain bearish, indicating a return to below $23,500.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) increased by 1.85%. Partially reversing a 3.09% drop on Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $25,611. Significantly, BTC revisited below $25,000 for the second time since March.

After a mixed start to the day, BTC fell to a low of $24,825 by late morning. Moving away from the first major support level (S1) at $24,618, BTC rallied to a late-session high of $25,766. However, missing the first major resistance level (R1) at $25,893, BTC pulled back to end the day at $25,611.

US economic indicators provide a bullish afternoon session

It was a busy Thursday session. There was no time for the dust to settle from the Fed's hawkish pause, with US jobless claims, retail sales and manufacturing all in the spotlight.

A mixed set of US economic indicators weighed on appetite for the dollar, fueling demand for riskier assets.

US jobless claims held steady at 262k vs. an expected decline of 250k, while retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.3% in May. While the retail sales numbers were bullish, weaker-than-expected jobless claims provided support.

Figures from the manufacturing sector also supported a pause by the Fed in July. The all-important Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell from -10.4 to -13.7, while the prices paid index fell from 10.9 to 10.5. New York's Empire State Manufacturing Index beat forecasts, going from -31.8 to 6.6, although it is unlikely to influence the Fed.

In response to the numbers, the NASDAQ Composite Index ended the day up 1.15%. This morning, the NASDAQ mini is down 14 points.

NASDAQ – BTCUSD 160623 Hourly Chart

Blackrock offers positive news

Amid increasingly intense crypto scrutiny, Blackrock Inc. (BLACK) provided some cheer to the crypto market on Thursday. the fund manager archived the necessary SEC documentation to launch the iShares Bitcoin Trust, which seeks to reflect the performance of bitcoin and provides an alternative method to gain investment exposure to bitcoin through the stock market.

the day ahead

It's a quiet Friday session. Preliminary figures from Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectations will generate interest. A rebound in consumer confidence would support cryptocurrencies. However, investors should also consider the Fed talk, with FOMC members Bullard and Waller speaking today.

While the USeconomic calendarwill attract interest, the focus of the market will remain on the SEC.

SEC v. Binance and coin base (CURRENCY) news and updates related to the course SEC vs. Ripple case will move the dial.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was down 0.22% at $25,555. A bearish start to the day saw BTC fall from an opening price of $25,610 to a low of $25,555.

BTC daily chartUSD 160623

BTC Technical Indicators

looking at the It's not and the 4-hour candlestick chart (below), the EMAs sent bearish signals. BTC sat below the 50-day EMA ($25,912). The 50 day EMA turned back from the 100 day EMA, with the 100 day EMA pulling back from the 200 day EMA sending bearish signals.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($25,912) and R1 ($25,976) would give the bulls a run to the 100-day EMA ($26,267) and R2 ($26,342). However, a failure to move through the 50 day EMA ($25,912) would leave S1 ($25,035) and less than $25,000 in the offing. A move through the 50 day EMA would send a bullish signal.

BTCUSD 160623 4-hour chart

Resistance and support levels

R1–$	25,893	S1–$	24,618
R2 - $	26,641	S2-$	24,091
R3-$	27,916	S3-$	22,816

BTC needs to avoid $25,401 pivot to target the first major resistance level (R1) at $25,976 and $26,000. A move through Thursday's high of $25.766 would indicate an extended bullish session. US crypto news leads and economic indicators should be crypto friendly to support a prolonged rally.

In the event of a prolonged rally, BTC would likely test the second major resistance level (R2) at $26,342 and resistance at $26,500. The third major resistance level (R3) sits at $27,283.

A drop through the pivot would bring the first major support level (S1) into play at $25,035. However, barring a risk-driven sell-off, BTC should avoid going below $24,000. The second major support level (S2) at $24,460 should cap the downside. The third major support level (S3) sits at $23,519.