Ethereum On The Brink

Breakout or bullish trap? That is the question for ethereum. Ethereum
ETH
It looks like the edge of a “moon”.

Hope is a resource that is wasted. For most, hope fades as time passes and the most sincere wishes do not come true. Cryptocurrency denizens are furiously awaiting an exchange-traded fund.

This is the situation that is driving the cryptocurrency rally. Will the SEC give the green light to crypto ETFs and will it be soon?

I would have thought that since so many ETF providers submitted proposals at the same time, someone must have turned on the amber light. Was it the SEC or was it a FOMO moment where every institution followed the leader as companies like BlackRock clamored for an early-listed bitcoin ETF? Whatever the dynamics, Bitcoin is up and the chart is super bullish. Here is my favorite analysis:

What about ethereum, the cool little brother of bully bitcoin?

He's also on the brink of a moonshot. But wait. BlackRock announced an ETF and it was business as usual.

Here is the graph, but also an annotation that raises a question:

The question is what now? It is on the verge of a breakout, but it looks like the classic bull trap where the bulls build up hope of a rally only for the price to sink.

In short, no ETF? Unlucky!

Meanwhile, the bitcoin halving is approaching, halving new bitcoin issuance, which will begin at the time of a major intersection of bullish moments based on the timing of quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve . This seems extremely optimistic, but there's a problem: It's called the "efficient market hypothesis." He says that the market already knows these things, so it will be valued perfectly, it will be valued right now and in the future.

However, the good news, or perhaps the bad news, is that cryptocurrencies are not an efficient market. Plagued by wild west players, unknown unknowns, a capricious regulatory environment, and a zombie army of malicious actors, crypto markets are not efficient.

So while traders look for which cryptocurrency BlackRock will want to ETF next, the big picture remains what happens with bitcoin because ethereum and the others will follow suit, and because bitcoin is not an efficient market, it has no ETF. then there are great advantages waiting to happen.

The bull case is simple: ETF + halving = moon.

The Bear Case: No ETF = Fall.

An ETF has a price anyway. Regulations will squeeze the moon out of cryptocurrencies.

I think?

The entire cryptocurrency market is a classic echo of what happens in booms. It could be very similar to the commodities cycle of the 1970s. There raw materials went through increasingly decreasing cycles for a decade. Nothing was quite like the 1973-1974 action after the initial explosion. All the merchants were still waiting for the return of the glory days that never came. If this is the case, the type of action we are seeing will not lead to $100,000+ bitcoins, but only a "normal" market sequence of rallies and pullbacks.

On the other hand, bitcoin is not going away and ethereum is linked to bitcoin. Both are commercial brands and great investments in a world where brand is everything.

So it seems that generally building a hodl is still the way to go until ethereum explodes. bitcoin
btc
has done so and ethereum will be a confirmation. Then it will be a time to get a little spicier.