Yeah Narendra ModiJoe Biden's state visit to the US catalyzed new ideas, Joe Biden's scheduled visit to New Delhi for the g20 summit in September it is pressing both parties to keep the promises made. Come November and Modi could be at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders' Meeting in San Francisco to which he has been invited, providing another push to get things done. US officials expect a deal under the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) - India has joined three of the four IPEF pillars (supply chains, clean economy and fair economy), but none on trade.
Although Biden and Modi will have registered a record number of meetings before the end of the year, a big question still hangs over the scheduling of a bilateral visit. India would like to host Biden, a president who has proven to be plenty of positive surprises, but the timing is tricky. India is not interested in going on a bilateral visit with the G20 summit because the focus should remain on the main event. That leaves just a couple of months before Modi goes into full election mode. Once India is done, Biden will deal with his re-election, making travel difficult.
There may be a way to align the timelines: the 2024 Republic Day parade. A Biden visit followed by a Quad summit, which India is expected to host next year, could fit everyone's schedule. Whether Modi would be willing to have four main guests for Republic Day instead of just one is another question.
In the meantime, something that many Indians will be happy about is progress on H-1B visa renewal within the US instead of people having to return to their home country. The H-1B pilot project will initially cover 10,000 applicants, 99% of whom will be Indian. A federal register notice on the H-1B 'domestic reissuance' making things official is expected by September 1 and acceptance of applications should begin shortly thereafter, with the actual visa stamping by the end of the year or early 2024.
There has also been movement on other fronts since Modi's visit in June. GE's F414 deal for co-production of military jet engines is on the right track in terms of process. The 'manufacturing license agreement' was due to be sent to the US Congress this week, where it is due to rest for 30 days. Congress is expected to approve the deal; the importance of the initiative is well known. Not even the unions are expected to oppose it: GE has done good business in India since the 1990s. India has bought 75 GE 404 engines while another 99 are on order for LCA Mk1. The new F414 deal will be another 99 engines for the LCA Mk2. It should all come clear in September in time for Biden and Modi to raise a glass of ginger ale/mango juice when they meet in Delhi. US officials hope the 'twin deal', the sale of 31 MQ-9B drones by General Atomics, will also see progress by then with a formal request letter from India. Only then will the actual process of determining various bells and whistles for the drones and pricing begin in earnest. The deal is expected to be around $2.5 billion, according to a US source. Ideally, the drone deal will close at the end of the year, so it doesn't get lost in the electoral rush. Washington feels the defense industry roadmap needs more milestones than just GE engines if plans to ramp up India's domestic manufacturing and modernization are to make real progress. The US offer to co-produce an advanced version of the M777 howitzers and Stryker armored personnel carriers in India could be transformative. These are 'fundamental' systems, though not as 'super sexy' as jet engines. Both US investment and an increase in India's defense industrial capacity would be sizeable, officials say, opening the way for exports to the global market: The US has sent 90 Strykers to Ukraine. Also, the Indian Army wants both systems.
The signals from New Delhi are positive so far and some technical consultations have been held. But attention could wander to both capitals next year.
