How Will the Stock Market Perform in 2024? Here’s What Wall Street Thinks. | The Motley Fool

There's something to be said about ending with a bang. He S&P 500 It ended 2023 with a huge profit, and much of it was generated in the last 10 weeks of the year.

Even better, however, is to start the new year stronger. How will the stock market perform in 2024? This is what Wall Street thinks.

Many bulls on Wall Street

The bulls seem to dominate on Wall Street with the new year just around the corner. Most analysts are at least somewhat optimistic about how the stock market will fare in 2024.

Bank of America, erythrocytesand Federated Hermes Analysts set price targets for the S&P 500 of 5,000 by the end of the new year. Admittedly, these companies are only moderately optimistic with their projections of growth potential of just under 5%.

Goldman Sachs, German bankand BMO They are more optimistic. Analysts at all three firms set price targets for the S&P 500 for 2024 of 5,100, reflecting an increase of nearly 7% from the index's current level.

oppenheimerJohn Stoltzfus' chief investment strategist seeks strong new bull market for the S&P 500. Your price target of 5,200 represents a potential gain of almost 9%.

All of these bullish analysts believe that easing inflation and interest rate cuts will be a key factor driving stocks higher in 2024. However, the group's biggest bull, Stolzfus, doesn't expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates. until later in the year.

Not all analysts are so optimistic

However, there are several less optimistic analysts on Wall Street. JPMorgan ChaseMarko Kolanovic and Dubravko Lakos-Bujas are particularly pessimistic about the outlook for the stock market in 2024.

Kolanovic and Lakos-Bujas wrote to their clients: "We expect a more challenging macroeconomic backdrop for equities next year with softer consumer trends at a time when investor positioning and sentiment have largely reversed." . His S&P 500 price target of 4,200 is 12% below the index's current level.

Morgan StanleyThe S&P 500 price target of 4,500 projects a more modest decline of less than 6%. However, the company still expects average earnings growth among S&P 500 companies of 7% or more in the new year.

Stifel Strategist Barry Bannister doesn't think the S&P 500 will do much in 2024... and beyond. He wrote to his clients: "We expect a range-bound S&P 500 in real terms to continue into the early 2030s." His S&P 500 price target for next year is 4,650, reflecting a decline of about 3% from the index's current level.

However, Bannister believes there could be opportunities for investors. He believes that market dynamics could make value stocks, small cap stocksand international actions more attractive.

Which view is correct?

We will have to wait a year to find out which of these opinions turns out to be the most accurate. However, history seems to be on the side of the bulls.

The S&P 500 tends to rise during US presidential election years. There have been only two exceptions in the last six decades: one at the beginning of the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, and another with the 2008 financial crisis.

However, regardless of what the S&P 500 does in 2024, investing in the index through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds will almost certainly be a winning strategy in the long term. The longer your investment horizon, the greater the profit you are likely to enjoy.

Bank of America is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool Company. JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Keith Speights He has positions in Bank of America. The Motley Fool positions and recommends Bank of America, Goldman Sachs Group, and JPMorgan Chase. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.