The Macro Markets show, hosted by cryptanalyst Marcel Pechman, which airs every Friday at 12 p.m. Current crypto activity.
In today's episode, Pechman takes a look at the housing crisis, especially after the US Case-Shiller index fell for the seventh straight month. Rising mortgage rates certainly played a role, considering 15-year financing rose to 5.6% from 3.7% in March 2022.
However, Pechman explains why commercial properties pose a much more immediate risk, as business declines rapidly during recessions. Additionally, corporate layoffs typically cause a cascading effect as fewer companies compete for commercial property.
At the same time, delinquencies naturally increase as companies are forced to refinance their debt at a much higher cost. The video explains how the commercial property crisis could spill over to regional banks and cites the multi-billion dollar defaults that have occurred in recent months.
During a brief summary, Pechman explains how cryptocurrencies are related to the real estate market and why the sector does not provide reliable protection against inflation.
The next segment of Macro Markets focuses on liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade between France and China settled directly in Yuan, bypassing the US dollar as a global settlement layer. However, Pechman points out how inefficient and unreliable this system is, since commercial banks and French-based companies are not allowed to carry yuan.
The program concludes by showing how Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrencies resemble broader commodity trading in that most of its volume occurs in USD. Therefore, even if a small part of the trade is done through other currencies, the USD markets maintain the indicative price rates.
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