Founded in 1978, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) is a Chicago-based company that provides research, education and insights for individual investors. Its weekly sentiment survey tracks the pulse of near-term optimism in the US stock market among the individual investor community. The goal is to provide a forward-looking perspective by asking them their opinion on the stock market over the next six months.
In the latest survey, 43.2% of investors say they are โoptimistic,โ a Wall Street term that denotes optimism. This means that investors believe that the stock market will continue to rise over the next six months. This is above the survey's historical average of 37.5%.
In contrast, 27.2% of investors are โbearishโ and believe the stock market will fall in the next six months, a high close to four months. This is notably higher than the 21.9% reported last week. Meanwhile, 29.6% of respondents said they were โneutralโ โ that the stock market would remain relatively unchanged over the next six months.
People are also reading...
If you've always wondered about Wall Street's fascination with bulls and bears and their frame of reference, here's a simple clue. The bulls advance (a rising stock market) and the bears go to sleep (a declining stock market).
The latest sentiment survey indicates that investors generally remain optimistic about the near-term outlook for the US stock market. However, the growing "bearish" outlook indicates growing concern that stock prices over the past 16 months may have risen too much, too fast.
The survey also reflects the rollercoaster that investors have experienced in recent years. In 2022, concerns about high inflation and rising interest rates caused major stock indices to decline. That year, the tech-heavy NASDAQ fell the most, 33.1%. The broad S&P 500 fell 19.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 8.8%. In December 2022, the AAII reported that bullish investor sentiment had plummeted to just 20.3%. Bearish sentiment, however, shot up to 52.3%.
But 2023 provided a much-needed boost for investors. Last year, the NASDAQ soared 43.4%, the S&P 500 gained 24.2% while the DJIA rose 13.7%. So far in 2024, all three stock indices have continued their rise and are currently at all-time highs.
It is unknown whether the current stock market rally continues or not. That is the kingdom of crystal balls. According to the latest sentiment survey, many investors believe this will be the case. But that optimism is increasingly tempered by a dose of caution. The economy still faces high inflation and high interest rates. This is a powerful combination that can potentially affect the growth of the US economy and stock market.
Google has temporarily stopped its new artificial intelligence model, Gemini, from generating images of people. This comes after he faced criticism for portraying historical figures such as politicians and German soldiers from World War II as people of color. Google has recognized the need to make adjustments to Gemini, which had been generating images with different ethnicities and genders. "We're working to improve these types of representations right away. Gemini's AI imaging generates a wide range of people. And that's generally a good thing because people all over the world use it. But it misses the mark here. white," Google said in a statement. The move comes amid ongoing concerns about bias in AI, with previous examples showing negative impacts on people of color. As efforts to mitigate bias continue, experts emphasize the complexity of the problem and the need to continually improve AI technology.
unbranded - Newsworthy
Where companies have adopted AI and where they plan to do so in the near future
Where companies have adopted AI and where they plan to do so in the near future
On November 30, 2022, OpenAI launched ChatGPT, an AI-powered chatbot. The application spread like wildfire. Not only did it provide an entertaining companion to chat with, but it also showed promise as productivity software.
ChatGPT allows users to ask questions on countless topics and get useful answers in a way that search engines like Google cannot offer. Similar technologies have emerged in all kinds of domains, including image generation, language translation, transcription, computer programming, and more.
Companies across the United States are embracing artificial intelligence. To find out which regions are the most enthusiastic about AI, Verbs data analyzed from surveys carried out by the Census Bureau in December 2023. Overall, 4.9% of companies said they were using AI to produce goods or services in the past two weeks, while 6.7% say they plan to do so within the next six months.
Unsurprisingly, information technology companies are the most eager to use artificial intelligence: 22% of respondents from US technology companies said they had used AI for their products or services in the last two weeks. In reality, that figure underestimates the impact of AI in the field. TO survey of computer programmers Conducted by JetBrains, a software company, it found that 77% of respondents used ChatGPT, while 46% used GitHub Copilot, an AI coding assistant.
According to the Census Bureau, professional, scientific and technical services were the second most likely type of business to report using artificial intelligence tools. Law firms are using tools to analyze thousands of past cases. And, according to Tess Bennett, a technology reporter at Financial reviewConsultants and accountants are using AI to create PowerPoint presentations and perform exploratory data analysis.
PeopleImages.com - Yuri A // Shutterstock
Main users
Some companies have adopted AI more quickly than others. Rhode Island businesses are leading the way on this front: 8.7% of the state's businesses currently use AI, nearly double the rate of U.S. businesses as a whole.
Companies on the West Coast and Southwest tended to be more AI-friendly, while companies in the Rust Belt were less interested in using AI tools.
This story compares census survey numbers with data on what types of businesses each state has within its borders and the educational level of its workforce to understand why these disparities exist between states.
In general, states with a higher share of companies in the technology sector were also likely to have more companies using AI to produce goods and services. However, the weak correlation suggests that despite all the hype around AI, companies have still been slow to change their practices to adopt the technology.
Verbs
Get in the car
Companies in Washington DC were the most likely to say they planned to adopt AI in the next six months, at 13.7%. Meanwhile, about 9% of companies in Maryland, Alaska, New Mexico, Rhode Island and Florida said they planned to implement AI. Alabama and Delaware were the least enthusiastic about AI adoption: Only 3.3% of businesses in the two states reported plans to implement AI.
This analysis of census data found a much stronger correlation between the number of companies in a state that are in the technology sector and their willingness to implement AI into their business practices in the near future.
Similar trends were found when it came to states with highly educated workforces: In general, the higher the share of a state's residents with college degrees, the more likely their companies were to say they were planning to implement AI. Artificial intelligence could be the future. But census data reveals that it is still early.
Story editing by Ashleigh Graf. Copy editing by Kristen Wegrzyn.
This story originally appeared on Verbit and was produced and distributed in association with Stacker Studio.
Verbs
Mark Grywacheski is a financial markets and economic analysis expert and investment advisor with Quad-Cities Investment Group, Davenport.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Any prices or quotes contained herein are indicative only and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities at a particular price. The information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, but we do not guarantee that the material presented is accurate or that it provides a complete description of the securities, markets or developments mentioned. Quad-Cities Investment Group LLC is a registered investment advisor with the U.S. Securities Exchange Commission.
