This week it will rain more. Not the torrents of Storm Babet, but unwanted rains for areas affected by floods and unnecessary rains on already saturated lands.
There's a yellow warning for rain today from the UK Met Office over the east of England, covering the Humber, East Midlands and part of Yorkshire. River impacts could continue here through Wednesday. There will also be heavy rain in the southern counties of England and Wales later today, with heavy rain in the south west of England, which could cause some problems with surface water this afternoon. Further rain is forecast for the UK later this week, with concern for north-east Britain due to existing ground conditions.
about Agency'River flooding continues in parts of Nottinghamshire until Friday. Flooding will also continue along the River Severn until Wednesday.' This morning it is raining in Norfolk, Wash through to Sheffield, Derby and Chesterfield. Showers will continue across northern England at lunchtime but will fade in the far north and become more focused on the warning area this afternoon. Environment agencies are reminding people to be careful of swollen rivers, that there will be strong currents and that river banks or roads could be unstable or just slippery. People should not drive through flooded water, again because the currents could still be strong and move the car, or become stranded, the car may begin to float, or the road structure may have been impacted, as seen in Marykirk.
There are currently no flood warnings or alerts in Scotland but this week's rain will not help those trying to dry out homes and businesses or the ongoing repair work along major road and rail routes, including the A90 and trains from Inverness, the west and the north.
Natural resources Wales still has some flood alerts in place and a flood warning for the River Dee near Wrexham, close to the A483 and A534.
There's a pretty messy synoptic picture for Tuesday with an easterly flow over the northern half of the UK and a small low center bordering the North Sea. Another low pressure will head towards France from the Bay of Biscay and will dump heavy showers over southern England and the English Channel this afternoon and overnight. These will head eastwards on Wednesday morning, but there will be more rain in France, which has also seen devastating storms and flooding.
As the rain clears from south-east England on Wednesday morning, there will be drier conditions across much of Wales, England and Northern Ireland, with sunshine around the Irish Sea in the morning. The easterly flow will bring low cloud and rain to Scotland on Wednesday. There will be some stronger gusts in wet conditions arriving in Glasgow in the afternoon. It looks like there will be some heavier rain in the central belt on Wednesday night, while other bands of rain will reach Ireland on Wednesday night.
Next, a larger low pressure in the Atlantic begins to dominate our weather in the UK. It will sit west of Ireland for the rest of the week, with its weather fronts moving over the UK and bringing an eastward flow from the North Sea. Southwest Britain and southern Ireland will regain a southwesterly flow later this week, but a secondary low will need to be watched. It could approach Cornwall on Saturday night, bringing wet and windy weather that could reach most of the UK on Sunday if that low moves over Britain.
The heaviest rain may not reach the worst-affected flood-affected areas of eastern Scotland, but it is worth looking at the various fixes in the ensemble forecast over the weekend.
Control forecasting is produced with the best available data and undisturbed models. The others each occur with slight perturbations of the initial conditions and the models. "Together, forecasts become a set that shows the range of possible outcomes and the probability of their occurrence." ECMWF
Instead of showing one solution (a highly probable deterministic forecast), there are a variety of forecasts, a set.
Angus received five severe flood warnings in Storm Babet and while most solutions are keeping rainfall at low levels, some solutions show heavier rainfall in the region.
The latter part of this week looks unsettled with bands of heavy rain swirling around a low pressure. There could be strong winds at times, just autumn weather, but it is the existing conditions that need to be considered with more rain on the way.
