Once a trickle, now a torrent: What it means for veteran MLAs to leave the Manitoba PC caucus
What started as a one-off trickle-down in the spring of 2022 has become a torrent for Manitoba's Progressive Conservatives, a caucus that filters MLA like the floor of the legislative chamber is wire mesh.
In the span of seven months, nine of the CP's 36 caucus members have either resigned from the legislature or indicated they will not run for office again. That equates to a 25 percent abandon rate.
Since the beginning of June, the Conservatives have effectively lost four cabinet ministers, four MPs and the president of the legislature. Six other MLA PCs have yet to declare their intentions to stand in the provincial elections scheduled for this fall.
While this exodus in itself does not spell doom for PCs in 2023 (most departures are in constituencies where voters are unlikely to choose anyone other than a Progressive Conservative), the scale of the abandonment is surprising during an election year.
“It sends the message, or could send the message, from a perception perspective, that long-term MLAs are jumping ship,” said Kelly Saunders, a professor of political science at Brandon University.
"This is not how you want to portray a government that is seeking re-election and trying to get voters excited again."
The exodus began in June, when former Treasury Secretary Scott Fielding resigned as Kirkfield Park's MLA. He was succeeded in December by former Winnipeg city councilor Kevin Klein at notice of a midterm election.
After Fielding's announcement, the pace of play picked up. The past week has been nothing but drip, drip, drip for the PCs, who will be competing this fall without Speaker Myrna Driedger in Roblin, or current Cabinet members Eileen Clarke in Agassiz, Cliff Cullen in Spruce Woods and Alan Lagimodiere in Selkirk. .
Backbenchers Ralph Eichler at Lakeside, Blaine Pedersen at Midland, Dennis Smook at La Verendrye and Ian Wishart at Portage la Prairie have also said they will not run again.
Of those districts, only Selkirk is at risk of switching to the NDP or the Liberals this fall. Before 2016, when Lagimodiere defeated 26-year-old New Democrat MLA Greg Dewar, Selkirk hadn't even elected a Progressive Conservative.
However, the departure of so many seasoned PC MLAs sends a very strong signal. Many of these veteran Conservatives worked hard in opposition for years while the NDP was in power under Gary Doer and then Greg Selinger.
With the PCs trailing the NDP in a series of recent polls by Probe Research, it would be rational for long-serving elected officials (several of whom have reached retirement age) to question their commitment to continuing public service. in the seats facing a Wab Kinew NDP government.
The decision by nine of them not to rejoin, with six more still undeclared or undecided in terms of their intentions, strongly suggests that the core of this party does not like the chances this fall.
Yet Prime Minister Heather Stefanson is brave.
“Every organization needs to be reinvigorated with new people and new ideas,” the prime minister, who replaced Brian Pallister after he stepped down in 2021, said in a statement on Wednesday.
“I look forward to welcoming even more talented individuals to represent Manitobans in our province as we continue the important work of building a stronger, more prosperous future for all Manitobans.”
'Not good news for PCs': Brandon U prof
In addition to the number of PC MLAs not running in this fall's election, the party also has to contend with the timing of the most recent exit announcements.
Ideally, they do not take place in the same year as a vote.
“This is not good news for PCs. The timing could not have been more unfortunate," said Saunders of Brandon University.
“It's not like we didn't know when the election was coming up, right? So for someone who's been thinking about retiring, it's not something they think about overnight."
Stefanson dismissed the idea that timing is a concern.
"I was fully aware of their intentions not to seek re-election and wanted to give them the opportunity to communicate their future plans on their own terms," the prime minister, who has not spoken publicly since Dec. 16, said in a statement. official capacity. .
Of the six MLA PCs that have yet to declare their intentions, three fill positions that the PCs stand a chance of losing without an incumbent in the race.
Shannon Martin has not indicated whether she plans to run again in Winnipeg's northern constituency of McPhillips, which she won by just 105 votes in 2019. The NDP will work hard this fall to demand the change.
Outside of Winnipeg, both Brad Michaleski at Dauphin and Rick Wowchuk at Swan River have yet to say if they will race again. Prior to 2016, Dauphin was NDP territory for 35 years, while Swan River was represented by New Democrats for 26 years.
The other three Undeclared Conservatives represent seats that are much more likely to stay blue regardless of the candidate: Cathy Cox in Kildonan-River East, Reg Helwer in Brandon West and Kelvin Goertzen in Steinbach.
If one of the latter chooses to join the PC exodus, the party will likely only take a token hit. The question now is whether this version of the progressive conservatives can afford to suffer even token losses.
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