The numbers are a backdrop to a crisis, especially in southwestern Oregon, where unvaccinated residents flood hospitals.
The start of the new week brought a torrent of bad numbers measuring the skyrocketing rise in COVID-19 cases in Oregon.
Oregon hospitals continue to head into uncharted medical territory as the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients reached 937 in a report on Monday, August 23, up 37 from Sunday. There are 253 COVID-19 patients in intensive care unit beds, 22 more than the day before.
The Oregon Health Authority reported that only 7% of adult staffed hospital beds and 8% of adult staffed Intensive Care Unit beds in the state were available.
There were no intensive care units available in the hospital regions serving Jackson, Josephine, Hood River, Gilliam, Sherman, and Wasco counties.
The numbers provide the statistical background for what has become a statewide crisis, especially in southwestern Oregon, where large numbers of unvaccinated residents are flooding hospitals and require relocation to other parts of the state.
The August 18 death of a COVID-19 patient at Mercy Health Hospital in Roseburg who was waiting in an emergency room because all intensive care unit beds were full has made international news as a symbol of the pandemic in the United States. United States and resistance to vaccination.
Since early this summer, the state no longer releases daily figures for Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays, waiting until Monday for a total of the three days. The Aug. 23 report showed 4,701 new COVID-19 cases and 24 new deaths. That brought the statewide total in the pandemic to 257,644. The death toll stands at 3,036.
The trends did not bode well for the future, and the OHA said on Friday, August 20, that at current rates, the number of new daily cases could exceed 5,000 early next month. The Oregon Health and Science University forecast earlier this month showed an increasingly steep rise in cases with hospitalizations peaking around September 11, when epidemiologists see an equally steep but still drop. it will take until the end of October to return to the previous peak. levels last seen at the end of June.
The OHSU report said the drop would be largely due to the virus running out of unvaccinated people to infect, hitting a wall in its growth. The forecast shows that it will take until the end of October to reach the levels of the end of June before the peak begins. A revised forecast is expected in the coming days.
Any relief is still a long way off, as Monday's exponential rise in numbers will continue for at least two weeks, with hospitalizations reaching 1,100 a day, far exceeding the state's resources for quality care.
Due to the rapid growth of the delta variant, OHSU scientists say that wearing masks and social distancing are the only way to mitigate the spike, even a little bit. Because of the major vaccines used in Oregon (the Moderna and Pfizer two-shot inoculations), it takes about six weeks for the vaccine to reach its full protective strength.
"Being vaccinated now is too late for this increase," Dr. Renee Edwards, medical director of Oregon Health and Science University, said Aug. 9.
The county's COVID-19 community transmission report on Monday listed 28 of the 36 counties showing infection rates above 10% over the past week, double the rate state officials have said can be controlled with measures of public health.
Nine counties had positive test rates above 20%, with the highest in Morrow at 26.9%, followed by Douglas at 25.1%. Others include Jackson, Josephine, Umatilla, Tillamook, Gilliam, Wallowa, and Sherman.
The sparsely populated Lake County was the only county in the state to record less than 5%, with a count of zero for the week.
Figures from the county's Covid-19 Community Transmission Weekly Report were once used by the OHA and Gov. Kate Brown to place counties in one of four risk categories with varying levels of restrictions on businesses, meetings, and events. When Brown announced that the state had moved closer to meeting the goal of 70% of all eligible adult residents receiving at least one shot of the vaccine, it lifted the statewide restrictions. The OHA continues to compile the report, but the state no longer uses it for any action.
If it were, most of the state would be at the highest level of "extreme risk."
Numbers statewide continued to rise with 14,539 new cases in the period beginning Aug. 15.
A key measure of where infection rates from the pandemic are hitting the most is the adjusted number of cases per capita - how many new cases per 100,000 residents.
It allows a rough comparison between counties of different sizes. There were 340.6 cases per capita statewide.
The other key measure is the percentage of COVID-19 tests that are positive. The state rate is 12.2%, up from 11.8% last week. The OHA has targeted a rate of no more than 5% as manageable for public health actions.
The peak of the delta affected almost every corner of the state, but there were wide statistical differences across geographic areas.
While the area around Portland had a high number of total cases, the per capita figures showed Multnomah and Washington counties in the fourth quarter among all counties. Their infection rates were in the single digits, below the state average. The numbers are still unsafe by OHA standards, but not that far from the 5% goal. Closer to the state goal.
The per capita ratings showed that the epicenter of the delta variant infection growth was in the southwest.
Douglas County reported 1,128.6 cases per capita, up from 813 the previous week.
Josephine County's per capita rate was 1,012 per capita, down from 919.6 the previous week.
Using the hazard level system dropped on June 30, for the most extreme restrictions to apply, most counties could not have more than 200 cases per 100,000.
Washington Counties (193.8) Benton (172) and Multnomah (159) would have been classified as "high risk," the level just below extreme risk.
Lake (12.4) and Wheeler (0.0) would likely be classified as "lower risk", the safest level.
Measurements for smaller counties were adjusted to prevent per capita rates from changing dramatically as a result of the small sample size.
While some counties showed a decline in per capita cases, they were falling from high numbers.
In the northwest of the state, Clatsop's per capita rate fell to 375.1, while Tillamook fell to 678.2, although both rates remain well above the level that used to trigger an extreme risk rating.
The current peak first erupted in eastern Oregon in early July, where Umatilla and other counties saw an increase in per capita rates. Cases continued to rise in most eastern counties.
An exception was Umatilla, where per capita cases fell from 651.6 to 493.3 and the infection rate went from 24.1% to 21.7%. The OHA report showed that the numbers are still dangerously high, but they are moving in the right direction for now.
Central Oregon is experiencing an increased risk level, with Deschutes County's per capita rate increasing to 471.0 from 402.0 and its positive test rate up 13.6% from 12.7%.
Crook County jumped to 469.3 per capita from 294.4 and its positivity rate to 14.4% from 12.3% ร from 294.4 Jefferson County increased to 390.0 per capita from 348.5 and their positive test rate rose to 17.0% from 16/2%.
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