Dow Jones futures will open Sunday night, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures.
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The stock market rally sent mixed messages during the week, but ended bearish. The Nasdaq closed on Thursday with a record NVIDIA (NVDA) and other mega-cap and AI stocks rallied. But the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Russell 2000 struggled amid strong inflation and tensions in the Middle East, with the small-cap Dow and Russell below their 50-day lines. The Nasdaq Just Made a Weekly Gain
He CBOE Volatility Index, the market's fear gauge, soared on Friday to its highest levels since late October amid concerns that Iran will directly attack Israel, raising the prospect of a much larger conflict in the Middle East. Disappointing JPMorgan Chase (JPM) orientation, a great Arista Networks (Aneta) China sell-offs and troubles Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (amd) also took its toll.
All of this caused risk aversion, especially heading into the weekend.
Investors should recognize the deciding factor of Friday's market expectations and respond accordingly.
Friday afternoon, tesla (TSLA) reduce the price of full self-driving subscriptions at $99 a month from $199. Stocks rose.
Salesforce.com (CRM) It's in talks in late stages to buy data management software maker computing (INFA), The Wall Street Journal reported Friday night.
Key gains ahead
Goldman Sachs (G.S.) and Carlos Schwab (SOUTHWEST) report early Monday. Goldman shares fell below their 50-day line on Friday, while Schwab remains in a buy zone.
Chip equipment giant ASML (ASML) and chipmaker Nvidia Taiwan Semiconductors (SST) may be next week's two biggest gains. Its results and guidance will have big implications for the chip industry, including Nvidia, Broadcom (AVGO), Lam Research (LRCX), Applied materials (ENORMOUS) and KLA Corp. (CLUTCH).
All of these chip stocks have new bases or potential entries.
Nvidia Stock Is Active Classification of IBD, Swing Trader and the IBD 50. KLA shares are in the Long-term IBD leaders list. Nvidia, ASML and Broadcom shares are on the market IBD 20 Large Cap.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures open at 6 pm ET on Sunday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.
Remember that the night action in dow futures and elsewhere does not necessarily translate into actual operations in the next regular period. stock Exchange session.
Join IBD experts as they analyze leading stocks and the market on IBD Live
Stock market rally
The stock market rally had a rough week due to an interesting CPI inflation report and fears in the Middle East, and Friday's losses erased Thursday's bullish signals.
The Nasdaq, which closed a record on Thursday, fell 1.6% on Friday trading in the stock market to end the week with a loss of 0.45%. The composite ended below the 21-day line but just above the 50-day and 10-week lines. It is also still trading with the big reversal day on April 4th.
The rest of the market looked worse.
The S&P 500 index sank 1.55% for the week, below the 21-day index. The benchmark index closed just above its 50-day line but below its 10-week line.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.4% to its lowest level since late January, while the small-cap Russell 2000 lost 2.9% to its lowest level since late February. Both are clearly under 50 days.
The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) fell 2.6%, breaking through the 50-day line on Friday. The First Trust Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted Index ETF (QQEW) fell 1.7%, below the 50-day line, reaching its worst levels since late February.
Crude oil fell 1.4% to $85.66 a barrel for the week, retracing Friday's intraday high of $87.67. Gold rose 1.3% to $2,356.20 an ounce, also well below Friday's highs.
The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 12 basis points to 4.5%, with Thursday's high of 4.59% a five-month high. Investors see only a modest chance of a Fed rate cut in June and are only leaning toward a move in July.
Stock Market Fear Indicator Soars
The CBOE Volatility Index soared 16.1% to 17.31 on Friday, with the 7:20 p.m. session peak the highest since late October. Excessive fear could portend at least a short-term bottom. But the market fear gauge is still well below its October highs, let alone its Covid highs.
Another sentiment indicator, particularly the Bulls vs. Bears Readinghad been near excessive bullish levels over the past week.
If tensions in the Middle East ease, there could be a rally in stocks. But a direct conflict between Iran and Israel could trigger a much greater rise in fear and a major pullback in stocks.
ETFs
Among growth ETFs, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (VAT) fell 1.7% on the week. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell 0.9%. Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor are SMH's largest holdings, and ASML stocks, Lam Research, KLA and AMAT are also members.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) decreased 1% last week. The Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF (TO PAVE) fell 3.4%. US Global Jets ETF (JETS) fell 2.6%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) fell 4%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) fell 2% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) lost 3%. The SPDR Select Industrial Sector Fund (XLII) lost 2.2%.
The Financial Select SPDR ETF (Four. Five) fell 3.6%, with JPMorgan being a major component. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (CREATE) fell 3.5%.
Reflecting stocks with more speculative histories, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) fell 1.25% last week and the ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) fell 3%.
Time the Market with IBD's ETF Market Strategy
ASML, Taiwan semi profits
Dutch chip equipment giant ASML is due to report on Wednesday morning and chip foundry giant Taiwan Semiconductor is due to report early Thursday.
Analysts expect ASML's earnings to fall in the first quarter, but see a recovery in the second half. Taiwan Semi's earnings are expected to hold steady, although unofficial targets may be higher after the foundry giant reported better-than-expected first-quarter sales on April 10.
Taiwan Semi is benefiting from strong demand for AI and other advanced chips. TSMC's guidance on earnings and capital spending will be key for the industry.
ASML shares fell 1.8% to 961.84 last week, closing around the 50-day and 10-week lines. Now you have a flat base with a buy point of 1,056.34. Investors could use a trendline entry around 1000 to initiate a position from the 10-week or April 1 high of 1002.66.
TSM shares rose 0.85% to 142.56 for the week. Stocks have been consolidating for a few weeks, but need another week to get a proper footing. Investors could use the April 10 high of 148.43 as an entry if Taiwan Semi stock rebounds on earnings.
Chip Stocks
Nvidia shares rose 0.2% to 881.86 for the week. Shares rebounded from the 10-week line on Wednesday and Thursday before paring gains on Friday, still holding the 21-day line. NVDA Stock Now Has a Flat Base at 974 point of purchase. At this point, investors could use Thursday's high of 907.39 as an early entry.
Broadcom shares rose 0.35% to 1,344.07 for the week, finding support at the 21-day and 10-week lines amid continued tight closes, but finding resistance near the 1,400 level. AVGO stock is now consolidating, with the April 4 high of 1,403.98 serving as a buy point.
Lam Research shares fell 1.2% to 957.04 for the week, finding support at the 10-week line. Shares have a flat base buy point of 1,007.39, according to Market increase. Lam has her own earnings scheduled for April 24.
Applied Materials shares were unchanged at 207.86 for the week, trading closely around the 21-day line. Investors could treat the recent consolidation as a de facto flat base with a 214.91 buy point. TO three tight weeks The pattern gives a slightly lower entry of 213.33 based on the April 11 high.
KLAC shares fell 0.3% to 680.78, right around the 50-day and 10-week lines. KLA has a flat base buy point of 729.15. A decisive move from the 50-day line could offer early entry. KLA earnings are due April 25.
What to do now
After Thursday's strong action, the expectation was that the market would continue to rise, especially the Nasdaq and leaders like Nvidia.
Instead, there was a big withdrawal on Friday. A direct conflict between Iran and Israel is a wild card, while JPMorgan and Arista did not help.
But whatever the reason, this is still a sideways market for the Nasdaq, and it's difficult to navigate. For the Dow and Russell 2000 โ and perhaps the S&P 500 โ this is increasingly looking like a pullback or emerging correction.
Investors have to reevaluate after Friday and last week. If you took new positions from Wednesday to Thursday, you may need to trim them or exit completely.
It's still a time to work on watch lists. If the war drumbeat fades and the next earnings reactions are positive, you'll want to be prepared. But you also have to be prepared to climb more aggressively.
As earnings season begins, know when you'll report your holdings. You also need to know when the main rivals, customers and suppliers of your holdings are available.
Read The panorama every day to stay in sync with market direction and major stocks and sectors.
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