On September 29, boutique crypto research firm Reflectivity reflectionarch, through a series of posts published on X (the social media platform formerly known as Twitter), provided an in-depth analysis of the performance of the crypto market over the past month. The thread, powered by VeloData, covers various aspects such as centralized exchange volumes, implied volatility, open interest, and more.
According to Reflexivity Research, centralized crypto exchange volumes have been steadily declining. This trend reflects declining on-chain volumes, liquidity, and even social media and Google search trends related to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
The thread also mentions that Deribit's implied volatility index has been trending downward. Reflexivity Research interprets this as a sign of reduced expectations of significant price movements in the crypto market in the foreseeable future.
Reflexivity Research notes that after last month's multi-billion dollar open interest wipeout, futures open interest has continued to decline. This trend is evident in the chart of dollar-denominated Bitcoin open interest.
Open interest for CME Bitcoin futures is also showing a similar downward trend, according to the Reflexivity Research thread.
In the thread, Reflexivity Research recalls that at the end of the second quarter and beginning of the third quarter, a major driver of Bitcoin price action was trading during US time. However, this demand for Bitcoin driven by the United States United has now clearly declined, falling below the cumulative performance of APAC trading hours over the past six months.
Reflexivity Research notes that GBTC's discount to net asset value (NAV) has renewed slightly over the past month, but has closed significantly so far this year. GBTC's current discount to NAV is 23%.
The thread mentions that the SEC only has 15 days left to decide how to respond to Grayscale's victory regarding its initial refusal to become a spot ETF. Reflexivity Research suggests this is a crucial point to monitor for clues about the SEC's next decision.
Outside of major digital assets, Reflexivity Research sees some pockets of idiosyncratic offerings for certain mid- and large-cap altcoins. Maker (MKR) is a case in point, driven by the RWA narrative in the current higher interest rate environment for longer.
Another standout mentioned by Reflexivity Research is Chainlink (LINK), which has outperformed most large caps over the past week. This performance is likely due to the success of CCIP and the upcoming SmartCon conference on October 2.
Reflexivity Research summarizes that September was another lackluster month for cryptocurrency markets, characterized by liquidity, volatility, open interest, and volume drops. However, they note that there have been clusters of companies with idiosyncratic outperformance for smart market participants.
Featured image via Halfway through the trip
