State buying of Chinese stocks will drive year-end rebound, Goldman predicts

The government has become more active in buying Chinese stocks since August in a bid to breathe life back into the market. marked marketaccording to Goldman Sachs.
โ€œThe purchase of the 'National Team' helps reinforce our view that Chinese stocks could organize a recovery rally towards the end of the year as growth stabilizes and policy easing momentum improves,โ€ Goldman said in a report, using a term used by local investors to refer to state buyers.

It reached its conclusion based on indicators such as trading patterns of key holdings by state-linked entities, inflows into select index-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the purchase of shares of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). with inside information, analysts such as Si Fu and Kinger Lau explained in the report.

The top five ETFs favored by the national team increased by 90 billion yuan ($12.3 billion) in net subscriptions in August, it said.

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Can China learn lessons from Japan's "lost 30 years"?

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The possibility of more direct state interventions in China's $9.5 trillion stock market has risen after Central Huijin Investment, a unit of the nation's sovereign wealth fund, increased its participation in the โ€œbig fourโ€ state banks for the first time in eight years last week. The move raised speculation that similar direct efforts to shore up the market could follow.

Chinese stocks have remained weak even after a flurry of support measures to boost economic growth and prop up stocks, including easing restrictions on property purchases and a cut in stamp duty payable on foreign exchange transactions. Stock market. Investors, particularly global fund managers, doubt these gradual measures can sustain a growth recovery.

Liquidation by foreign investors continued in September for the second consecutive month. The CSI 300 index of stocks traded in yuan has fallen about 6 percent this year.

The National Team is estimated to have amassed local stock holdings equal to 3.5 percent of the total market capitalization, or about 2 trillion yuan, according to Goldman.

Direct state intervention in stocks may not be an effective tool to stem the declines, if history is any guide. In the crisis of 2015 erasing $5 trillion in market value, the CSI 300 index fell more than 40 percent in the space of two months, even after Beijing bought shares through state-run China Securities Finance, Central Huijin and brokerage firms. leaders.

Strategically, China's domestic stocks remain the preferred choice for equity allocation over their foreign counterparts, due to their lower sensitivity to geopolitical tensions and foreign liquidity flows, and better sector alignment with the tailwinds of policies, according to Goldman.

Chinese stocks have reacted positively on average the last six times Central Huijin has raised its bets in the big four banks since 2008, and the CSI 300 index rose an average of 4 percent in the following three months, he said.

โ€œThe most effective tool to stabilize asset prices, revive investor confidence and eliminate the [last remaining] The systemic risk implicit in asset valuations has been the direct purchase of shares by the government (or sponsored entities), often on a substantial scale and with the government and central banks acting as a last resort in terms of liquidity and provision of financing,โ€ Goldman said in the report.

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