Stocks were choppy after the December employment report showed that the labor market remains strong (good news), although this could keep interest rates higher for longer (bad news).
Before the opening, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the US added 216,000 new jobs in December, much more than 175,000 economists expected. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7%, while wage growth accelerated to a faster monthly pace than seen in November.
Markets recovered strongly in late 2023 on expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut Interest rates as soon as its March meeting, but today's data interrupts "the market parade toward rate cuts," says Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. "While there were downward revisions from previous months, job growth is still in the 'no landing' camp, keeping wages on the boil."
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This, in turn, adds to the inflationary pressures that the Federal Reserve is trying to reduce. Following today's employment data, CME Group FedWatch's FedWatch tool shows that futures traders are now pricing in a 62% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point in March, up from 73% a week ago.
Analyst Sets Big Free Cash Flow Target for Nvidia
In individual stock news, NVIDIA (NVDA ) gained 2.3% after BofA Values Analyst Vivek Arya maintained a Buy rating on the megacap stock and said it remains a top pick in the sector.
NVDA's mastery in generative AI (artificial intelligence) can potentially help the company generate approximately $100 billion in free cash flow (FCF) over the next two years, the analyst writes in a note to clients. As a reminder, free cash flow is the money left over after a company has paid its expenses, interest on debt, taxes, and the long-term investments needed to grow its business.
"Of the roughly $100 billion in FCF, we estimate that only $30 to $35 billion could go toward buybacks, leaving $65 to $70 billion in ammunition for new organic and inorganic growth initiatives." says Arya, adding that this generation of free cash flow can help address uncertainty over the company's growth prospects.
Elsewhere, Interactive Platoon (PTON ) continued to rise after the fitness company said Thursday morning that it is teaming up with TikTok . The partnership will bring short-form fitness content to the social media platform. Consumer discretionary stocks rose 9.9% on Friday, bringing their two-day gain to more than 25%.
Regarding the main indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.1% at 37,466, the S&P 500 gained 0.2% to 4,697, and the Nasdaq Compound added 0.1% to 14,524. Still, all three indices snapped their nine-week winning streaks.
CPI and fourth quarter earnings season underway
Looking ahead to next week, there is much to keep investors on their toes. On the economic front, the month of December Consumer Price Index (CPI) It will be released before the opening next Thursday.
Furthermore, the beginning of the fourth quarter Profits The season begins on Friday with several large banks set to report. While the earnings recession officially ended in the third quarter, analysts are increasingly concerned about the fourth quarter. According John Butters senior earnings analyst at FactSet Research Systems, the upward estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share fell 6.8% from September 30 to December 31.
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