High inflation in the form of Wednesday's Consumer Price Index caused stocks to fall and bond yields to rise once again.
Markets had essentially traded sideways in the early days of April, as market participants recalibrated their bets on when the Federal Reserve will begin to taper. Interest rates . Although the central bank remains committed to three cuts in 2024, persistent inflation, a solid laboratory market and strong economic growth have pushed back expectations for when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Federal Reserve's rate-setting group, will begin easing rates.
As a result, Wednesday's release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had a huge impact on market thinking. Experts say a data-dependent Federal Reserve will likely delay the timing of its first interest rate cut after the CPI revealed inflation accelerated markedly last month. Some experts maintain that three cuts are ruled out for 2024.
Subscribe to Kiplinger's Personal Finance
Be a smarter, more informed investor.
Save up to 74%
Subscribe to Kiplinger's Free Email Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more, delivered right to your email.
Profit and prosper with the best expert advice, delivered right to your inbox.
Headline inflation rose 0.4% in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics he said Wednesday, beating economists' forecast for a 0.3% increase. In annual terms, general inflation increased by 3.5%. This was up from 3.2% a month ago and beat estimates of 3.1%.
Core CPI, which excludes volatile foods and energy Costs, and considered a better predictor of future prices, reached 0.4% month over month, just as they did the previous two months. Economists expected core prices to rise just 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, the core CPI rose 3.8%, as it did the previous month, versus expectations for a 3.7% increase.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are looking for sustained evidence that inflation has fallen to 2% before taking steps to cut interest rates since a maximum of 23 years. The latest CPI report will likely change your estimate, meaning it could be a while longer before we get monetary easing at the next Federal Reserve meeting. Some expert commentary on the CPI report maintains that three rate cuts in 2024 are no longer on the table.
"Today's inflation numbers likely close the door on a rate cut in June, but the Fed is still very motivated to start the cutting cycle this year," says Lauren Goodwin, economist and chief market strategist at Life investments in New York .
As of April 10, futures traders assigned a 15% probability to the first quarter-point cut occurring in June, up from 56% a day ago, according to the CME Group report. FedWatch Tool .
At Monday's close, blue-chip stocks Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1% to 38,460, while the benchmark index S&P 500 was 1% lower at 5,160. heavy technology Nasdaq Compound fell 0.8% to 16,170.
Earnings season is underway
While this week earnings schedule is relatively light, Friday's results from several large banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM ), citi group (c ) and Wells Fargo (CFM ), marks the start of the first quarter reporting season.
As for JPM, a consensus Buy rating Dow Jones Stocks Analysts, on average, expect the central monetary bank to post earnings of $3.88 per share (-5.4% year-over-year) on revenue of $38.8 billion (-1.4% year-over-year).
"Global US banks are likely to see a sequential improvement in March results over December, but year-over-year comparisons are likely stable or lower," says CFRA Research analyst Kenneth Leon.
Leรณn believes higher interest rates will boost net interest income (a key measure of profitability for banks that shows the difference between income earned on loans and costs paid for deposits), while a healthy economy bodes well for growth in lending volume, credit card transactions and merchant services.
JPM has one of the best opportunities among the big banks for better-than-expected results in the first quarter, Leon says, adding that Dow Jones shares "have performed well and we believe there is more room to run with a healthy American economy and consumer." , low unemployment and stable credit".
Nvidia is having a bad day
In individual stock news, NVIDIA (NVDA ) rallied 2% in a bear market, but that may be due more to technical reasons than fundamentals.
The leading maker of generative AI data center chips has been one of the most important members of the Magnificent 7 actions that fueled much of the recent bull run. However, on Tuesday, NVDA stock briefly entered correction territory (or a 10% pullback from its most recent high) after Intel (INTC ) introduced a competing product, an AI chip called Gaudi 3.
Wednesday's rally, likely led by technicians and bargain hunters, helped NVDA end the session in the green, but the stock has been under pressure in recent weeks. However, Nvidia remains one of the best stocks of all time . Anyone who puts $1,000 worth of Nvidia stock 20 years ago I would be very happy with your returns today.
Related content
Scroll to Top