Bitcoin inflows across all exchanges have been net negative since last July, but four major exchanges have been trading against this trend with almost as many net positive inflows.
There have been total net outflows of 46,000 BTC (worth about $1.8 billion at current prices) from all crypto exchanges since last July.
Only Binance, Bittrex, Bitfinex and FTX have seen net positive inflows of 207,000 Bitcoin (BTC), according to data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode on March 7. Newsletter. During the same time period, net outflows totaled 253,000 BTC from all other exchanges tracked.
FTX and Huobi have seen the most dramatic change in their BTC holdings since last July. While FTX has more than tripled the amount of BTC it holds to 103,200 today, Huobi's holdings are down to just 12,300 BTC, or about 6% of what it held, from over 400,000 BTC at March 2020.
Net outputs have been consistent since last year, with some important peaks in August and most recently on January 11.
However, Glassnode attributes the current relatively low inflows to "the scale of uncertainty in the market today" and suggests that the cryptocurrency trading market, in general, has shifted to derivatives trading over spot sales to hedge the risk.
Swap entries are measured to help better understand whether investors are preparing to liquidate or hide their coins. Net inflows put inbound selling pressure, while net outflows suggest more holding.
The coins that remain on the chain maintain a realized price of $24,100 per BTC, suggesting that most hodlers enjoy a 63% profit margin. The realized price is the average price of all the coins as they moved up the chain.
The realized price contrasts with an implied price of $39,200. The implied price is an estimated fair value price per coin and is currently just below break-even as BTC was trading at $38,346 at the time of writing according to CoinGecko.
Right now, short-term holders are about 15% underwater, as the average price of coins that have moved on-chain in the last 155 days is $46,400 according to Glassnode.
Related: Bitcoin Price Rejection at $39K and Mounting Regulatory Concerns Sink Market Again
Adding to the low volume of inflows and outflows is the seller's PnL ratio, which has been leveling off since early 2021. Glassnode suggests that long-term holders (LTHs) are getting tired of selling to Even though โwe have yet to see a major LTH capitulation event as seen in previous cyclical bottoms.โ He added:
โThe historically low magnitude of STH and LTH losses may be indicating higher probabilities of aggregate seller exhaustion.โ
The bulletin warns that there is still a risk of a "final and complete capitulation of both STH and LTH" which has occurred at the bottom of the previous cycle's bottoms.
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