In a surprising statement on his “Truth Social” platform, former President Donald Trump has attributed the recent stock market rally to his positive poll numbers against President Joe Biden. Trump's claim suggests that investor confidence is being boosted by the prospect of his victory in the upcoming election, a claim made without presenting any supporting evidence.
As reported by CNBC, on January 29, 2024, in a mail In Truth Social, Trump stated emphatically:
“THIS IS THE TRUMP STOCK MARKET BECAUSE MY POLLS AGAINST BIDEN ARE SO GOOD THAT INVESTORS PROJECT I WILL WIN, AND THAT WILL DRIVE THE MARKET UP – EVERYTHING ELSE IS TERRIBLE (LOOK AT THE MIDDLE EAST!), AND THAT'S IT THERE HAS BEEN A RECORD INFLATION, IT HAS PASSED A TOLL. “LET’S MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!”
In fact, the stock market has seen significant gains: the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 38,000 points for the first time on January 22, a rapid rise of 1,000 points in just 40 days. Similarly, the S&P 500 hit an all-time high on January 19, signaling the start of a new bull market. On February 2, the S&P 500 closed the week at 4,958.61, up 4.55% year to date and up 20.62% over the past year.
Polls indicate a tight race between Trump and Biden, with some, like a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, showing Trump slightly ahead. As the 2024 election approaches, Trump has emerged as the favorite for the Republican nomination, bolstered by his claims that the performance of the stock market is directly related to his political fortunes.
As Brett Samuels reported for The Hill, during a Fox News town hall in Iowa on January 10, when asked by moderator Bret Baier about his previous comments wishing for an economic recession within the next year to avoid a Herbert Hoover-like legacy, who took office during economic stability. But he witnessed the beginning of the Great Depression, Trump clarified his position.
“Aren't you implying that you want an economic recession, just to clarify?” Baier asked.
"No. Here's what I believe: The economy is in terrible shape, with the sole exception of the stock market going up. And my belief is that the stock market is going up because I'm ahead of Biden in all the polls." ”Trump responded.
He further predicted: "If I don't win, I anticipate an accident." Trump emphasized: “And I say that because I don't want to be compared to Herbert Hoover.”
This mirrors his prediction before the 2020 election, where he warned of a market crash if Biden emerged victorious, a claim that the Biden camp revised on January 29 with a touch of irony, given the current strength of the market.
Contrary to predictions of an economic slowdown due to Federal Reserve interest rate increases aimed at controlling inflation, the US economy has shown resilience. The latest economic indicators, including a strong December jobs report, a low unemployment rate and a 3.3% GDP increase in the final quarter of 2023, suggest a stronger-than-expected economy. Furthermore, signs of cooling inflation, although prices remain high, contribute to a more optimistic economic outlook, challenging the narrative of an imminent recession.
During a Bloomberg television interview on February 2, Jeffrey Rosenberg, senior portfolio manager at BlackRock Inc., offered his analysis in the wake of the US Employment Report for January 2024 and the latest Federal Reserve meeting on monetary policy.
Rosenberg advised viewers to approach the jobs report with a nuanced perspective, emphasizing the need to dig deeper beyond superficial interpretations. She highlighted the typical seasonal adjustments to January employment data, warning that these factors often lead to a wide range of expectations and a history of positive surprises for the month. Rosenberg suggested that these seasonal dynamics could potentially overstate the perceived strength of the labor market as reflected in payroll numbers.
Taking a closer look at the jobs report, Rosenberg urged careful examination of payroll growth, noting the complexity of current changes in the labor market. She pointed to the disproportionate impact of higher-level job titles in the recent numbers and a decline in average work hours, factors that could artificially enhance the appearance of payroll data. Importantly, Rosenberg drew attention to the recent Employment Cost Index (ICE), which indicated a trend toward wage disinflation. This, she argued, should temper any overly optimistic interpretation of the jobs report's strength.
During a recent conversation on “Mornings With Maria” with host Maria Bartiromo, Trump shared his views on Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Trump, who is expected to clinch the Republican nomination for the 2024 presidential race, expressed doubts about Powell's ability to steer the economy into a stable slowdown, hinting at the possibility that Powell could lower interest rates to favor the Party. Democrat in the next elections.
Trump speculated that such measures could trigger significant inflation, particularly if turmoil in the Middle East leads to rising oil prices. He directly criticized Powell for being partisan and made it clear that he would not consider Powell for his re-election as Fed chair if he were to win the presidency again, alluding to alternative options for the position without specifying any names.
Featured image via unpack
