URA releases preliminary estimate of Q4 2023 private residential property price index
• The overall preliminary estimate of the private residential price index increased by 2.7% in the fourth quarter of 2023, mainly driven by sales transactions in selected recently launched projects. For the whole of 2023, the private residential price index increased at a slower pace, 6.7%, compared to 8.6% in 2022. This was the second consecutive year of moderation in the increase of the index.
• Private residential property sales continued to moderate in the fourth quarter of 2023, with private residential sales transaction volume declining approximately 27% quarter-on-quarter. Total transaction volume in 2023 is at its lowest level in seven years, since 2016.
• The Government has increased the supply of housing through the Government Land Sale (GLS) programme. The supply of private housing from the Confirmed List in the GLS Program has increased significantly by around 50% to 9,250 units in 2023, from 6,290 units in 2022. In 1H2024, the GLS supply injection will be increased further, with the release of 5450 units in comparison. to 5,160 units in 2H2023 and 4,090 units in 1H2023. This is the highest supply on the Confirmed List in a single GLS Program since the GLS Program of the second half of 2013. The largest supply of private housing thanks to the GLS program will be ready for release for sale approximately next year, to satisfy purchasing demand and help keep prices in line with economic fundamentals.
• Global economic activity is expected to continue to decline through 2024, with domestic mortgage rates at elevated levels. Households should continue to exercise caution when making new financial commitments, including long-term mortgage debt servicing obligations.
The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) today released the preliminary estimate of the private residential property price index for the fourth quarter of 2023.
Overall, the preliminary estimate of the private residential property price index increased quarter-on-quarter by 2.7% in the fourth quarter of 2023, bringing the price increase for all of 2023 to 6.7% (see Annex A [PDF, 124 kb] and Annex B [PDF, 104 kb]). This represents a moderation from the 8.6% increase in 2022. Sales transaction volume fell approximately 27% quarter-on-quarter. For all of 2023, sales transaction volume fell by approximately 15% compared to 20221. This was the lowest annual sales transaction volume since 2016.
Non-real estate property prices increased by 2.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, driven primarily by sales transactions in select recently launched projects. For all of 2023, non-real estate property prices increased by 6.5%, moderating from the 8.1% increase in 2022. Non-real estate property prices in the Central Central Region (CCR) and the Rest of the Central Region (RCR) increased by 2.1% and 2.7% respectively in 2023, moderating from the respective increases of 4.8% and 9.7% in 2022 (see Annex C [PDF, 110 kb]).
The Government has further increased the supply of private housing on the Confirmed List to 5,450 units for the 1H2024 GLS Program from 5,160 units in 2H2023. This is the highest supply on the Confirmed List in a single GLS Program since the GLS Program of the second half of 2013. This injection of supply will bring the total supply of private housing to approximately 59,100 units, comprising 41,900 units with planning approval and 17,200 units of GLS sites and block awarded sites that have not yet been granted planning approval. Of these, around 39,700 units will be completed between 2023 and 2025, which is approximately double the 20,000 units completed between 2020 and 2022. This forms part of the total supply of around 100,000 public and private housing units to be completed between 2023 and 2025. which will meet the demand for housing in the coming years and promote market stability.
Preliminary estimates are compiled based on transaction prices indicated in contracts submitted for payment of stamp duty and data on units sold by developers until mid-December 2023. Statistics will be updated on January 26, 2023. 2024 when URA publishes its full set of property statistics. for the fourth quarter of 2023. Previous data has shown that the difference between the quarterly price changes indicated by the preliminary estimate and the actual changes could be significant when the change is small. The public is advised to interpret preliminary estimates with caution.
1 Sales transaction volume (through mid-December) amounted to 3,800 in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to 5,201 in the third quarter of 2023. Sales transaction volume (through mid-December) amounted to 18,510 in 2023 , compared to 21,890 in 2022.
