Bitcoin (btc) begins the last week of September with a retest of $26,000 as a persistent range persists.
A lackluster weekly close sets the tone for the culmination of a traditionally lackluster month for BTC price action.
Having made it through a hectic week of macroeconomic events, Bitcoin has a lot more to contend with before September ends. US gross domestic product figures for the second quarter will be released on September 28, and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data will be released the next day.
However, the highlight will likely come in the form of a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell a week after he opted to keep US interest rates at their current high levels.
Inflation remains a major talking point in the fourth quarter, and Bitcoin still lacks direction as weeks after weeks pass without a clear upward or downward trend emerging.
Will this week be different? The countdown to the monthly closing is already underway.
BTC weekly price chart prints a “death cross”
BTC price performance, although stable over the weekend, deteriorated after the weekly close on September 24.
BTC/USD made a trip to $26,000, data from Markets Cointelegraph Pro and TradingView shows, and this level still manages to hold as support at the time of writing, ahead of Wall Street's first open of the week.
Looking at the situation on exchanges, commentators noted that liquidations are occurring for long and short BTC positions.
Both sides almost eliminated.
Nice long squeeze. Trapped bulls. https://t.co/FxUGbwxx3v pic.twitter.com/us8Cxno5PZ
- IT Technology (@IT_Tech_PL) September 24, 2023
Bitcoin is still near two-week lows, reinforcing the arguments of already cautious analysts about what could come next.
Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital continued to track what he suggested could be a repeat of previous BTC price behavior. The year 2023, he argued over the weekend, could end up looking like 2019, its counterpart from the last cycle.
“Bitcoin could follow the same bearish fractal of 2019 to fall lower in this macro range,” he said. He suggested along with a comparative table.
In a later debate At X, Rekt Capital placed the fractal's possible downside target at around $20,000.
Meanwhile, Keith Alan, co-founder of tracking resource Material Indicators, spotted the so-called “death cross” in the weekly deadlines.
Here, the descending 21-week simple moving average (SMA) has crossed below its ascending 200-week counterpart, a phenomenon that highlights the comparative weakness of the recent price action.
Uploading a chart showing a bearish warning from Material Indicators' proprietary price tools, Alan added that this would be invalidated if BTC/USD reclaimed $26,500.
TO #DeathCross + a new precognition of trends ⬇️ Signal in the #btc Weekly chart (Pump > $26.5 to invalidate).
Any questions? pic.twitter.com/aBa64Be56D
—Keith Alan (@KAProductions) September 25, 2023
A more optimistic view came from trader and analyst Credible Crypto, who believed that a rebalancing of the market composition would result in a return to $27,000.
“We had clear, visible and confirmed accumulation in the green square,” he said. commented on a graph, based on the analysis of the weekend.
“This latest downward pressure appears to be a downward manipulation (red square) before the upward expansion. 27k incoming in my opinion.”
September 2023 clings to “green” status
Despite overnight weakness, Bitcoin remains in the black in September overall, a rare feat by historical standards.
The latest live data from the CoinGlass monitoring resource places BTC/USD is up 0.8% so far this month.
While this appears modest compared to the volatility typically seen in the pair, September is typically a bearish prelude to a more substantial rally traditionally seen in October.
Therefore, 2023 is still on track to be Bitcoin's best September performance in seven years.
October, which is known informally as “Uptober” among hodlers thanks to matching with BTC and broader crypto profits, it is already a topic of conversation.
Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, suggested that the start of next month could provide the fuel for the total crypto market capitalization to surpass the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA).
"Crypto's total market cap is struggling against resistance here from the 200-week EMA," he said. said X subscribers at the end of last week.
“I think it's just a matter of time until we get over it. Probably 1-2 weeks if future Ethereum ETFs can be approved and Uptober starts.”
Bitcoin's 200-week EMA continues to act as support and currently sits at $25,700.
Fed PCE, Powell data lead macro week
If last week's macroeconomic events were not enough to induce significant volatility In the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets, perhaps the end-of-month selection will have the desired effect.
The revised US second-quarter GDP precedes comments from Fed Chair Powell, as well as five other speakers, including Governor Lisa Cook, later on September 28. Markets, as always, will closely monitor the language used, especially by Powell, to determine how the future will unfold. economic policy could work.
The PCE data will arrive a day later; This is known to be one of the Federal Reserve's preferred indicators for measuring inflation trends.
“Very busy week just as volatility has returned,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in an X outlook.
The return of volatility is fantastic news for traders.
More uncertainty has returned to the Fed and we are prepared for it.
We will soon publish our operations for the week.
In 2022, our calls reached 86%.
Subscribe to access our analysis and see what we're trading:https://t.co/SJRZ4FrNBc
— Kobeissi's letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 24, 2023
Ahead of the Fed data and speakers, markets are pricing in a 75% chance that interest rates will remain anchored at current levels at the next decision meeting in November, according to data from CME Group's FedWatch tool.
Meanwhile, before that, waiting in the wings is the threat of a new US government shutdown over budget disputes. Politicians have until October 2 to prevent it, notes pro-Bitcoin trade litigator Joe Carlasare.
October's main catalysts (Part 2)
Predictive markets now anticipate a 70% government shutdown on October 2.
Millions of federal workers face delays in their paychecks as the government shuts down, including many of the approximately 2 million military personnel and more than 2 million... pic.twitter.com/XTrt0g06t2
— Joe Carlasare (@JoeCarlasare) September 24, 2023
Analysis rules out fall in BTC exchange balance
Bitcoin available to buy on exchanges may be close to its lowest levels since 2018But this is not a reason for celebration or optimism, maintains a veteran analyst.
For Willy Woo, creator of the Woobull statistics platform, the "synthetic" nature of exchanges' BTC balances means that their multi-year decline does not represent BTC supply becoming more illiquid or scarce.
“Will buying BTC shares on exchanges increase the price? NO! This is a fallacy,” he stated. said X subscribers in a thread over the weekend.
“This happened throughout bearish 2022. There is no supply shock because synthetic BTC via futures markets was added to inventory. “The market hit bottom when the futures markets gave way.”
Woo argued that approving a Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund in the US would go some way to “rectify” the problem.
Futures, he added, were the elephant in the room that skewed his market outlook in early 2022 before BTC/USD hit two-year lows of $15,600 in November.
“I saw the bull market in early 2022 by interpreting on-chain (spot) flows as bullish, while the futures shock leviathan was saying the opposite,” he admitted.
Bitcoin offers "fascinating" similarities with 2020
Regardless of BTC's near-term price performance, some remain universally optimistic when it comes to Bitcoin's overall health this year.
Related: Short-Term Bitcoin Holders 'Panic' Amid Nearly 100% Unrealized Losses
Among them is the popular trader and analyst known as Mustache, who now believes that current levels could represent the last opportunity to "buy the dip" in BTC in 2023.
Uploading a chart comparing the status quo to 2020, Mustache also noted “fascinating” similarities in Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI).
#Bitcoin 2020 vs. #Bitcoin 2023
Isn't it fascinating?
Perhaps the last opportunity to "buy the dip" in 2023. pic.twitter.com/1S88g4Nc4x
— ⓗ (@el_crypto_prof) September 22, 2023
He later highlighted the position of the 200-week EMA as support.
"95% expect lower prices, something that will not happen," he said. wrote in part of the accompanying commentary, with another chart that places BTC/USD in an expanding “megaphone” structure.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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