Last week, ADP's jobs report showed that U.S. private companies added about 152,000 workers, less than expected and down from a revised 188,000 the previous month. Economists predicted a reading of 173,000. The lower additions to the US private sector come a day after US job postings fell to their lowest level since February 2021. These readings may indicate a possible weakening of the US labor market in the future.
However, later in the week, the U.S. Department of Labor reported a mixed result, as the U.S. economy added about 272,000 new jobs in May 2024, well above the 180,000 expected by analysts. economists. This is a strong addition of new jobs and indicates that employment in the United States remains solid to this point. However, care must be taken when drawing final conclusions from this report, as these figures have been revised downwards repeatedly over the past few months. It was a mixed report because the unemployment rate rose from 3.9% to 4.0%. As a result, they sold out within minutes of the report being published.
source: altFINS.com
The CMC Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which is the digital asset market sentiment indicator, remained around 61.00 compared to the previous week, indicating โgreed.โ We saw the total cryptocurrency market capitalization rise slightly by around 0.8% to $2.55 trillion on Monday compared to a week ago, with Bitcoin (ETH) dominance floating at around 17.5 % while Bitcoin (BTC) dominance was around 54%. USDT dominance floats around 4.4%, down almost 50% from its peak in January 2023, indicating that funds were gradually shifting from stablecoins to altcoins over the past year and a half.
TOP WEEKLY CRYPTO WINNERS AND LOSERS โ Based on altFINS Crypto
source: altFINS.com
Main winners:
+19.2%
+16.6%
+10.7
Main losers:
-14%
-14.8%
-fifteen%
So where is Bitcoin headed?
Bitcoin (btc) briefly crossed the psychological mark of $72,000 on Friday, June 7, 2024, only to experience a sudden sell-off to $68,420. The rapid sell-off could have been caused by better-than-expected employment results in the US, indicating that the Federal Reserve could have more time to keep rates unchanged. It could also have been affected by the expiration of future options worth about $2.2 billion, including about $1.2 billion expiring at about $69,500. Normally, when we are close to options expiration, the price tends to be volatile. In terms of Bitcoin ETF spot flows, together, the 11 ETFs have accumulated around $1.8 billion in net inflows last week combined.
Since the $72,000 mark has yet to become support, Bitcoin (btc) continues to consolidate while trading within a sideways channel between $60,000 and $72,000. This consolidation may take a few more months before we see Bitcoin resume its bull run. Macroeconomic developments are also supporting sideways trading, as more data on US inflation and employment is needed for the Federal Reserve to take its next step on interest rates. If the $72,000 level does not hold, the price could now fall back to around the $60,000 support zone during June. If the support does not hold, then we could revisit the next support zone of $50,000 to $52,000. To stay updated on future BTC price developments and detailed technical analysis, explore more at altFINS.
source: altFINS.com
WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK
This week, the US headline CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 3.4% for May 2024. The US core CPI is expected to fall slightly to 3.5% from 3 .6% from the previous month. This time, the timing of the CPI report will coincide with the Fed's monetary policy meeting and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's conference. According to the CME FedWatch tool, rates are expected to remain unchanged for the next two meetings, with a 45% chance of a first rate cut in September 2024. I think the Fed will be in wait-and-see mode What happens during the third trimester. 2024, and perhaps even until the end of the year, that depends on how inflation and employment in the United States develop during the second half of the year. I believe they will not cut rates before the November 2024 presidential election as it could unleash new inflationary forces that would be detrimental to the incumbent president.
However, the ECB and the Bank of Canada began a new easing cycle last week, with the BOC cutting them to 4.75% and the ECB to 3.75%, below an all-time high of 4%. I believe that once the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve follow suit, there will be a rallying effect on risk assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies and some valuations may reach all-time highs.
