Key ideas:
- On Thursday, XRP joined the broader crypto market in the red, falling 4.57% to end the day at $0.37122.
- US President Joe Biden's crypto tax plans, Fed Fear and the collapse of Silvergate Bank overshadowed optimism towards the SEC v Ripple case.
- Technical indicators turned bearish, signaling a return to below $0.35.
Thursday, XRP it slid 4.57%. Reversing a 2.33% gain on Wednesday, XRP ended the day at $0.37122. Significantly, XRP ended a three-day winning streak.
After a hectic morning, XRP rallied to an early afternoon high of $0.39717 before pulling back. Missing the first major resistance level (R1) at $0.4026, XRP slid to a Thursday night low of $0.36443. XRP fell through the first major support level (S1) at $0.3739 to close the day at $0.37122.
SEC v Ripple case takes a backseat to leave XRP in a bearish mood
There was not SEC vs. Ripple Case Updates to Distract Investors from Crypto News Wires and the US Economic Calendar
Market angst ahead of the US jobs report and Fed fears weighed on buyers' appetites. Following news that Silvergate Bank was planning a voluntary liquidation, shares of SVB Financial Group (SIVB) plunged as investors responded to the advertisement of a $1.75 billion share sale to support its balance sheet and address the impact of falling deposits.
The US Administration added to the bearish mood, releasing a White House fact sheet outlining plans to remove tax subsidies for cryptocurrencies.
For investors monitoring the SEC v Ripple case, a Court ruling on the Hinman documents it will be the key to the defendants and the broader crypto market. In a famous 2018 speech, William Hinman said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not values.
The contentious issue with the speech relates to Hinman's connection to Simpson Thacher. Simpson Thacher is part of a group promoting Enterprise Ethereum. After leaving the SEC, Hinman returned to Simpson Thacher.
A Court decision in favor of the Defendants would fuel the expectation of an SEC settlement.
the day ahead
Investors should continue to monitor Binance, FTX, Silvergate Bank and SIVB updates. Regulatory activity and chatter from legislators will likely continue to be the focal point.
This afternoon, the US Jobs Report could spook investors. Another better-than-expected jobs report would send the NASDAQ Composite Index and the broader crypto market into the red.
However, we expect the SEC v Ripple Court rulings to outperform the US Employment Report.
XRP Price Action
As of this writing, XRP is down 0.19% at $0.37051. A bearish start to the day saw XRP fall from an initial high of $0.37097 to a low of $0.36534.
technical indicators
XRP needs to move through $0.3776 pivot to target the first main resistance level (R1) at $0.3908 and Thursday's high of $0.39717. A return to $0.39 would signal a bullish session. However, the broader crypto market and SEC v Ripple talk would need to support a breakout.
In the event of a prolonged rally, XRP would likely test the second major resistance level (R2) at $0.4103. The third main resistance level (R3) sits at $0.4431.
Failure to move through the pivot would leave the first major support level (S1) at $0.3580 up for grabs. However, barring an extended cryptocurrency sell-off, XRP should avoid below $0.35 and the second major support level (S2) at $0.3449. The third major support level (S3) sits at $0.3121.
He It's not and the 4-hour candlestick chart (below) sent a more bullish signal.
At the time of writing, XRP was trading below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.37858. The 50 day EMA has pulled back from the 100 day EMA, with the 100 day EMA pulling back from the 200 day EMA. The signals were bearish.
A move through the 50-day EMA ($0.37858) would support a break of the 100-day EMA ($0.37996) and 200-day EMA ($0.38313) to target R1 ($0.3908). However, a drop through S1 ($0.3580) would give bears a look below $0.35.
